The spin doctors are seriously out in force. "Face masks do little good." "Computer simulations show 'only' 1,400 cases of Swine flu."
Let's look at the last one first. If a reader understands math, they understand exponential growth. I realize math gives folks the heebie jeebies so I'll give a short story of exponential growth for you. A king once promised a reward of a gold coin that was doubled for each square of a checker board. The king died a poor penniless old man for that. In the first eight days it started small.
1 coin for the first day, 2 coins for the second. Four for the third day, and eight for the fourth. On the eight day, the king paid 64. The next row things got a little out of hand. On day sixteen, the king paid, 16,384. He had paid in total by the sixteenth day over 32,000 gold coins. With six rows left to go, the numbers get huge. Now lets look at this "only 1,400" amount they are placating you with.
If we look at the words exponential growth and that "looking further out, things are very different." There are still six more rows to go folks. It isn't over in four weeks, it's just starting. The numbers that get sick are going to be huge because we have no defense You might want to be an early bird and get it over with now. Getting any kind of service in a couple of months is going to be interesting.
Not to panic though, this isn't Bird Flu and the death rate will be manageable. Yes people are going to die. Not hordes of them. The media will try to make it seem like hordes, but not so. If it were Bird Flu (H5N1) I'd have bought a gun last week. Not for me, but society will have some issues with Bird Flu. Anyhow, they are spreading disinformation to lull you into not taking action until too late.
Might was well buy some cough syrup and cold meds now while they are on store shelves. Stock up on toilet paper too. Trust me when you are sick and everyone in the house is bowl blasting, you do not want to have to run to the store and see empty TP shelves. TP is near worth it's weight in gold sometimes. As for other things, you know the drill. Racine actually has a disaster preparedness website. The Journal times actually ran a series of what to buy each month to outfit a well stocked disaster kit. I don't think you will need a full kit, but a good look over the list will help you see what you and your family need for that rough period.
Oh yeah, the face masks. You aren't going to find them, you're going to pay premium when you do, and they do work better than you've been lead to believe. If you make a run on them, then those out on the Front Lines won't be able to find them. This is the real reason the news story went out that they don't work that well. If you have an N95 rated mask, and use it correctly, you are much safer out in public. *NOTE I said "N5" in an earlier post. the correct number is "N95"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20090501/sc_livescience/worstcasescenarioforfluestimated
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12 comments:
What are you supposed to believe?
This across the Associated Press
KK:
Each person NEEDS to believe whatever they feel is BEST. IF a person doesn't CARE, don't do anything. If a person is concerned, DON'T feel bad about doing what you feel you need to do. In other words Don't be bullied into thinking your wasting your time.
LOT'S of people have an opinion about "Worry or Not Worry" MY opinion "Better Safe Than Sorry"
Okay, I will wash my hands, do the normal type good hygiene stuff. You know, the stuff you normally do without thinking. My immune system is strong...so I will be okay...what we need to do is take care of those people with suppressed immune systems.
Media panic...eeeeek.
I have tons of duct tape and sheets of plastic. I'm going to hermetically seal myself in.
Or maybe duck, cover, and kiss my butt goodbye.
I actually want to catch H1N1 just to see if I can beat it.
In other news I can confirm that the lost cat phone number in California is indeed disconnected. Yes I tried again.
Good info Huck!
We got plenty of n95 respirators a while ago-- they never expire and work great for drywalling:-)
KK, believe me enough to prepare a little. If I am wrong, no harm. Hell, you can even point fingers, laugh at me and heap abuse. If I am right, you have your meds, TP and a small larder of easy to prepare meals for when you are either too sick or harried to fix something proper.
I've pointed out that this Flu isn't Bird Flu and the number of dead will be significantly lower than everyone (infrastructure) prepared for. I mean, even Racine has their own "Pandemic Preparedness Dept." It's true, the office is located in the short hall leading to the Zoning office. I believe Racine took such alarm over Avian Influenza, that they gave someone a broom closet as an office.
Remember that all officials and politicians have easy access to the 10 million doses of Tamiflu. They can easily tell you "Short Lived" and "only 1,400 cases in four weeks." without fears of being wrong. they are taken care of.
I am not trying to instill panic, but I AM trying to negate the misinformation so my friends have a better chance of making it through unscathed.
Why do I know so much about Pandemics? I have researched them since a bit before 2001. I KNOW pandemic history. I KNOW what EVERY pandemic has acted like. There have ALWAYS been two waves of contagion. The second wave comes six to nine months after the first. It can be worse. Each wave lasts three to four months. Fortunately we'll have vaccines by a year from today.
I knew about SARS before it got out of China and made it all the way to Toronto. Heck before they called it SARS even. I've watched H5N1 to see if it was spreading easily (remember 64% die) I took a break and completely missed Swine Flu, or I'd have said something a few weeks ago.
With the virus out in the public sector, they will not contain it. With it so easily spread, it isn't going to be bottled up more easily than an evil Genie. Authorities are trying to buy time before the runs on the markets. I'm trying to get you guys off your butts and get ahead of the crowd.
Cyndi, I also have my N95s, easy to prepare meals, cold meds, extra heart meds for when the pharmacy gets very busy and possibly under staffed, and toilet paper. Lord, I have TP.
Don't panic, but have enough fear to go get prepared.
I'm not laughing at you huck. I always have plenty of TP, medications and food in the house. I am not poo, pooing this virus either, but we have to be reasonable. If you choose to do more, that is fine.
I remember when everyone went panicky and bought the plastic sheeting and duct tape. I didn't. I did fill a couple plastic bottles with water. The media loves this crap. You really don't know what and who to believe.
As you can probably understand, it particularly interests me about the potential spread through schools. We are coming off spring break and many students in Racine have connections to Mexico and may have recently visited.
School is in session. Many kids are coughing and are sick. Happens every year. If and when they decide to close schools, we will all be already exposed. There is no avoiding it. There is not much we can do there. Worry and panic doesn't help.
The cdc has some excellent info and will email you updates when posted if you like.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/k12_dismissal.htm
The government is always willing to spend millions to promote the myth that they are protecting somebody!
Huck, I now have 72 rolls of toilet paper, enough soap to supply the township and cough medicine...they tried to sell me some stuff that tasted awful...I decided to chance a plain old vitamin pill....
Oh and twelve boxes of kleenex...am I set yet, Huck?
I see you guys have two suspected cases now...so does FL.
Racine has two suspected cases, Wisconsin has over five confirmed cases. You wouldn't be teasing me would you BJ? I just want you guys to use common sense and not blow it off. Fools are already claiming this is a bit of Obama subterfuge to take our minds off the economy problems.
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