WH Warns Massive Swine Flu Spread
Dire Report Says 50 Percent Infection Rate, Up to 90,000 Deaths Possible This Flu Season From H1N1
"Up to half of the population of the U.S. could come down with the swine flu and 90,000 could die this season, according to a dire report from the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology."
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=8403214
Maybe I'll just start drinking again . . .
It's natures way for population growth.
ReplyDeleteI think we've screwed too much with Mother Nature. This is a human-bird-swine flu mix, kind of a Frankenstein monster. It's not following "the rules" for the flu. The so-called experts have no idea what is happening, but, being filled with arrogance, they make pronouncements anyway. Their hubris will hurt us plenty.
ReplyDeleteHow many of us have already been infected and are now immune? Remember that nasty "cold" that was going around last fall?
ReplyDeleteMakes me very nervous when they want to push through something that hasn't had the full and proper testing. Even that isn't a guarantee.
I remember a couple of years ago they recalled Baycol, a very popular medication used to treat high cholesterol because it was causing permanent heart valve damage. This was a medication they "thought" they had fully tested...
This almost sounds like an alarmist scare tactic. Almost like someone is poised to make a lot of money on this vaccine. hmmm...
I think they're going to inject us with mind control drugs. It's a plot by the evil Obamamites to overthrow the evil whatevermites. I'm digging a hole and crawling into it.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, I don't believe much of anything I read or hear anymore. It's impossible to discern what is true or false. We tend to believe what we want to believe, anyway. Government, on all levels, has lied to us so much for so long, that'd you have to be insane to accept what they say at face value.
Remember when you read the paper or turned on the TV for "the news?" It's all propaganda now. At some point, journalists decided that they would filter the news that the government has already filtered. Now people are at each others' throats in town hall meetings. What do you expect when you lie and lie and lie to people? And then throw more lies into it?
And the response? More lies.
No way in hell im getting the "vaccine". Call me a tin fiol hat guy, but I dont trust it yet. Coming out too fast with too much government. Would love to hear Hale's opinion, being the resident science guy.
ReplyDeleteThe math says out of our entire population, just .0003 will die. I'm good with that. VA has my vaccine ordered
ReplyDeleteI guess I can oscillate between thinking this is just a bunch of hooey and then becoming scared. I guess if it were only myself I could just say screw it, no biggy but as a mother it's scary to think of my little ones getting sick.. I know this doesnt seem to be any worse than any other flu out there, but all of the coverage of it makes it that more alarming.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to say to a 2 year old that they should wash their hands often and sneeze into their sleeves intead of their hands. I know daycares are breeding grounds for both bacteria and viruses.
So what to do, get the shot?? Seems to be going through very fast and not thoroughly test (at least thats the feeling I get) or have them go without and hope their immune systems are strong enough to beat whatever flu comes their way.
Well, Stu, you are asking me questions a little outside my strongest field, but I'll share a few thoughts.
ReplyDeleteFirst, looking back to the 1976 Swine flu outbreak, lots of people harp of Guillian-Barre syndrome, a disorder that can be triggered by vaccines where the body's immune system goes wonky (technical term) and attacks the body. This is a potential (but rare) side effect of ANY vaccine. Doctors are much better trained to spot and treat GB syndrome now. Although there is no "cure" most patients make a full recovery with treatment. I don't think you can argue against a swine flu vaccine from this perspective without arguing against all vaccines (better turn down the next tetanus shot!)
As for the testing, I'll let you in on a dirty little secret: The flu vaccine is different every year and the formula is changed routinely with minimal testing. Tens of millions of people take their annual flu shots without giving this a second thought. I know H1N1 is a new virus and I admit I am still trying to figure out why this seems to be changing the testing requirements and what exactly they are testing for. I don't know enough about the trials to properly address this.
In order for vaccines to be effective, you need to get enough of the population vaccinated to get the herd immunity effect. We do a pretty good job with that for things like measles due to mandatory vaccinations. We don't require mandatory vaccinations for the flu which kill about 36,000 people per year according to the CDC. The linked article quotes 90,000 possible deaths from H1N1.
So now it becomes a policy question. At what point do you make things mandatory? For whom? What exemptions? I know vaccinations have done a world of good in the past. What is the threat level that warrants mandatory vaccinations...that is trickier. I also have this damn civil liberties streak that sneaks into my thinking so I don't have a great answer to this one.
For some numbers, GB syndrome happens in about one in million vaccinations. Given 300 million in the country, we could expect 300 cases of GB versus the estimated 90,000 deaths.
Obviously, we are not all going to die, although some will and a lot of people will be miserable.
There are some thoughts, hopefully a good starting point for discussion.
Thanks Hale for clearing up some confusion I had. Still not sure if I will get it. Used to get the flu shot, and always got the flu. Havent had one in five years and havent been sick (maybe just lucky?) Maybe I'll see how the first round of immunizations go.
ReplyDeleteI read that the 1976 immunization was halted because it was determined that more people were having issue with GBS than the predicted disastrous outbreak of the flu.
ReplyDeleteI also read that this time around, they are using a "cocktail" effect in the new vaccine, combining some of the 1976 vaccine with the latest strains of bird, beast and whatever...
I've also been informed by medical personnel that the current vaccine of the year is usually at least one year behind whatever the current virus out there is.
I think I'm going to pass on this one, unless my employer makes it mandatory... and they might, with all the hype out there.
I agree with why not. You want to be responsible. It gets hard not to get sucked into the scare you hear on the news.
How much of the current hype is influenced by the Health Care Reform movement?
ReplyDeleteEd, I think that Swine Flu is looked at seperate from HC reform. At least I do.
ReplyDeleteIf everyone in the world is worried about this very bad flu then we won't worry about the economy. Personally I think it's just the flu...you get sick and then you get better. A few days off of work/school. They are talking about this flu wiping out whole cities. Give me a break. Let's get back to how we are going to pay our taxes.
ReplyDeleteEVERYTHING is a plot.
ReplyDeleteI know it.
I'm just gonna do what my doctor says.
kk, I heard that they make the vaccine for the strains they predict will dominate flu season. And I believe they mutate rather quickly.
Or is that misinformation? I don''t know a damn thing, I'm just repeating things I think I heard or read somewhere.
I heard the same thing about predicting the strains, orbs. Medicine is "practiced," not perfected.
ReplyDeleteI also heard that usually things don't change much from year to year.(unlike this year)
My nursy friends said that if you get the flu or have a flu shot, you should be fairly confident of not getting *really* sick with it for about 7 years. That's the story I know, and I'm sticking with it.
With creepy data like this circulating around, really makes me wonder if I should reconsider my derby name: Sinfluenza (my # is "H1N1"). Allusions of danger are a ok with me, anything more than that would be kindof a downer;-)
ReplyDelete